NEW YORK -- The consensus forecast of U.S. real GDP growth in 2017 rebounded slightly over the past month to 2.2 percent, according to the June issue of Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators. The increase largely resulted from an upward revision to Q1 real GDP by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
The Blue Chip Consensus predicts real GDP's growth rate will rebound to 3.0 percent in the current quarter and increase at a modestly above-trend rate of 2.4 percent in Q3 and 2.3 percent in Q4 of this year.
Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) June meeting, 100 percent of the Blue Chip panelists predict an increase in interest rates. "The Federal Reserve is likely to assume that the recent softness in economic growth and inflation will prove to be transitory," said Randell E. Moore, executive editor of Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators. "The consensus anticipates that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the June meeting."
Other consensus findings from the June issue of Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey include:
- In addition to a June rate hike, an additional 25 basis point rate hike by the end of this year is expected by about three-quarters of the Blue Chip panelists.
- The consensus forecasts of year-over-year and Q4-over-Q4 real GDP growth in 2018 remained at 2.4 percent for a sixth consecutive month.
- The consensus forecast of car and light trucks sales in 2017 fell for a third straight month and are now expected to total 17.0 million units.
- The odds that Congress will approve any tax cuts or big infrastructure investment plan by the end of this year continue to fall and are now less than 50 percent.
About Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators
Established in 1976, Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators has become synonymous with the latest in expert opinion on the future performance of the U.S. economy by presenting the forecasts of 50 economists from the nation's largest and most respected manufacturers, banks, insurance companies, and brokerage firms. The newsletter compiles the experts' individual and combined forecasts for the current and following year for variables including, but not limited to, real GDP, consumer price index, industrial production, real disposable personal income, pre-tax corporate profits, unemployment rates and real net exports.
For more information on Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators please visit wolterskluwerlr.com/bluechip.
About Wolters Kluwer
Wolters Kluwer Legal & Regulatory U.S. is a part of Wolters Kluwer N.V. (AEX: WKL), a global leader in information services and solutions for professionals in the health, tax and accounting, risk and compliance, finance and legal sectors. We help our customers make critical decisions every day by providing expert solutions that combine deep domain knowledge with specialized technology and services.
Wolters Kluwer reported 2016 annual revenues of €4.3 billion. The company, headquartered in Alphen aan den Rijn, the Netherlands, serves customers in over 180 countries, maintains operations in over 40 countries and employs 19,000 people worldwide.
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